Outcome Driven Maintenance for Paper Mills: Why 99% Uptime is Meaningless if Your Cost-Per-Ton is Too High

In the pulp and paper industry, "reliability" has traditionally been synonymous with "availability." For decades, the mandate for mill managers and maintenance directors was simple: keep the machine running. If the paper machine is turning, we are making money. If it stops, we are losing money.

But in 2026, that equation is no longer linear. Energy costs are volatile, raw material prices fluctuate daily, and the market demand for specific grades shifts rapidly. In this environment, a machine running at 99% availability can still bleed money if it is consuming excessive steam, producing off-spec rolls, or requiring emergency overtime labor to limp along.

This brings us to the core question facing modern mill leadership: What is outcome driven maintenance, and how does it differ from the reliability strategies we’ve used for the last twenty years?

The Core Insight: From Asset-Centric to Business-Centric

Outcome driven maintenance (ODM) is a strategic shift that moves maintenance triggers away from asset health alone and aligns them with business objectives.

In a traditional Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) or Predictive Maintenance (PdM) setup, a vibration sensor on a press roll bearing might alert you that the bearing has entered the early stages of failure (Stage 2). The maintenance team schedules a replacement because "the asset is failing."

In an Outcome Driven Maintenance model, the decision framework is broader. The system analyzes the bearing health, but it cross-references that data with:

1. Production Schedule: Are we running a high-margin grade or a low-margin linerboard next week?
2. Market Demand: Is the warehouse full?
3. Energy Efficiency: Is the failing bearing causing a drag that increases drive load and energy consumption significantly?

The "outcome" isn't just a fixed bearing; it is the protection of the profit margin. ODM might suggest running the bearing to failure if the cost of the downtime is lower than the cost of interrupting a high-margin run, provided safety isn't compromised. Conversely, it might mandate an immediate shutdown if the drag is causing a 5% spike in energy usage that destroys the margin on the current grade.

ODM treats maintenance as a financial lever, not just a repair function.

How does ODM differ from Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)?

Once leaders understand the concept, the immediate follow-up is usually: "We already did an RCM study five years ago. Isn't this the same thing?"

While Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) provides the foundation, Outcome Driven Maintenance is the dynamic execution of that logic in real-time, enhanced by modern data integration.

Static vs. Dynamic Decision Making

RCM is often a static exercise. You analyze failure modes (FMEA), determine consequences, and set a strategy (Run-to-Failure, PM, or PdM). Once set, those strategies rarely change until the next audit.

ODM is dynamic. It ingests real-time data from your manufacturing AI software to adjust the strategy based on current context.

Example: The Suction Roll

• RCM Approach: The strategy is to replace seals every 6 months to prevent vacuum loss.
• ODM Approach: Sensors monitor vacuum levels, drive load, and water flow. The AI predicts that based on current wear rates and the abrasive nature of the recycled fiber currently being used, the seals will fail in 4 months. However, the system also sees a scheduled major outage in 3.5 months. The ODM decision is to inject a specific additive to lubricate the seals and reduce speed by 2% to extend life to the outage, avoiding an unscheduled stop.

The Integration of Process Data

Traditional maintenance looks at vibration, temperature, and oil analysis. ODM integrates process data (SCADA/DCS).

In a paper mill, the process is the machine health. You cannot separate the wet end chemistry from the pump reliability. If your retention aid dosage is off, you get flocculation issues that cause pump cavitation. A vibration analyst might see "cavitation," but an ODM system sees "process chemistry error causing asset stress."

What specific outcomes should a Paper Mill target?

If we are driving towards outcomes, we must define them. In the paper industry, "uptime" is a vanity metric if it doesn't correlate to "sellable tons produced at the lowest cost."

Here are the four pillars of outcome driven maintenance in paper manufacturing:

1. Total Effective Equipment Performance (TEEP)

While OEE (Overall Equipment Effectiveness) measures performance during scheduled run time, TEEP looks at the 24/7/365 reality. ODM targets TEEP because paper machines are capital-intensive assets that should rarely stop.

• The Goal: Minimize "micro-stops" (sheet breaks) that don't always show up in major downtime reports but kill threading efficiency and ruin TEEP.

2. Cost-Per-Ton Optimization

This is the holy grail. Maintenance activities are prioritized based on their impact on the cost per ton.

• Scenario: You have two failing assets.
  • Asset A: A broke pulper motor (redundant system available).
  • Asset B: A condensate pump in the dryer section.
• Decision: Traditional maintenance might fix Asset A because it's "easier" or the part is in stock. ODM prioritizes Asset B immediately because poor condensate evacuation reduces heat transfer, forcing the mill to burn more gas to dry the paper, directly increasing the cost-per-ton.

3. Energy Intensity Reduction

Paper mills are massive energy consumers. A significant portion of "maintenance" issues manifest as energy waste before they manifest as mechanical failure.

• The Link: Misaligned rolls, worn felts, and failing bearings all increase the load on the drive system. ODM monitors the amperage draw on sectional drives. A 3% increase in load on the wire turning roll is an "outcome" that triggers a work order, even if vibration levels are still within ISO acceptable limits.

4. Quality Yield (First Pass Retention)

Maintenance directly impacts quality. Worn clothing (felts/wires), oscillating showers that are clogged, or uneven nip pressure in the calender stack lead to culled rolls.

• The Shift: Instead of waiting for a quality lab report to reject a roll, ODM uses sensor data to predict when machine conditions (like nip pressure profiles) are drifting into a zone that will produce off-spec paper.

How does this work in practice? (The Technical Architecture)

Moving from concept to reality requires a specific technology stack. You cannot do ODM with a clipboard and a spreadsheet.

Step 1: The Unified Data Layer

Most mills have data silos. The vibration data sits in a proprietary software (like Emerson or SKF), the process data sits in the DCS (Honeywell or ABB), and the maintenance history sits in the CMMS.

ODM requires a unified layer. You need integrations that pull these streams together.

• Vibration Data: High-frequency data for mechanical health.
• Process Data: Flow, pressure, temperature, speed, consistency.
• ERP/CMMS Data: Spare parts inventory, labor costs, production schedule.

Step 2: The Digital Twin

For a paper machine, a Digital Twin is a virtual representation of the physics of the line. It understands that if the stock pump slows down, the headbox pressure should drop. If the pressure doesn't drop, there is a blockage or a sensor error.

This allows for Prescriptive Analytics.

• Predictive: "The pump will fail."
• Prescriptive: "The pump is cavitating due to a clogged suction line. Backflush the line to resolve the issue and avoid pump damage."

Step 3: Automated Workflow Generation

Insights must become actions. When the ODM system detects a risk to the "outcome" (e.g., energy spike), it should automatically trigger a workflow in your CMMS software.

• The alert shouldn't just say "Check Motor."
• It should say: "Drive load elevated 15%. Check gearbox temperature and lubrication. Estimated energy loss: $400/hr."

Deep Dive: Wet End vs. Dry End Implementation

The application of Outcome Driven Maintenance varies significantly depending on where you are in the mill.

The Wet End: Chemistry and Flow

The wet end (Stock Prep to Press Section) is where the paper is made; the rest is just drying. Here, maintenance outcomes are tied to stability.

• Pumps and Valves: The wet end relies on hundreds of pumps and control valves. A "sticky" valve in the headbox recirculation line can cause basis weight variations.
• ODM Application: Monitor the response time of control valves. If a valve is commanded to open 10% and takes 2 seconds longer than its baseline, it’s a maintenance trigger. The outcome protected is Basis Weight Profile (CD/MD stability).
• Wire/Felt Tension: Load cells measure tension. If tension control becomes erratic, it leads to sheet breaks. ODM correlates tension variance with drive motor currents to identify if the issue is the load cell, the hydraulic tensioner, or the drive itself.

The Dry End: Heat and Speed

The dry end (Dryers, Calender, Reel, Winder) is a hostile environment. High heat and high speed.

• Bearing Health: There are hundreds of bearings in the dryer cans. Manual lubrication is dangerous and difficult.
• ODM Application: Automated vibration monitoring on bearings is standard. But ODM adds the Steam Joint variable. If a steam joint leaks, it affects the drying rate. ODM correlates acoustic sensors (listening for leaks) with bearing temps.
• The Outcome: Preventing a "wrecker." A bearing seizure in the dryer section at 3000 fpm can destroy felts and cause fires. The cost isn't the bearing ($500); it's the felt ($50,000) and the downtime ($20,000/hr).

What are the organizational barriers?

If ODM is so logical, why isn't every mill doing it? The barriers are rarely technical; they are cultural.

1. The "Hero" Culture

Paper mills often celebrate the "heroes" who come in at 2 AM to fix a catastrophic breakdown and get the machine running. There is less glory in the reliability engineer who adjusted a parameter on Tuesday afternoon that prevented the breakdown from ever happening.

• Solution: Change the KPIs. Reward "Mean Time Between Interventions" and "Schedule Compliance" rather than "Emergency Repair Speed."

2. The Operations vs. Maintenance Silo

Operations wants to run fast. Maintenance wants to slow down to save the equipment.

• The ODM Bridge: ODM provides a neutral "source of truth." It’s not the Maintenance Manager saying "slow down"; it’s the data showing that running at 3100 fpm increases the risk of a sheet break by 40% due to current vibration levels, which will result in a net loss of production.

3. Data Overload

Mills are drowning in data but starving for wisdom. Installing 5,000 sensors is useless if they generate 5,000 alarms a day.

• Solution: Use AI predictive maintenance to filter noise. You need algorithms that suppress alarms during grade changes or wash-ups and only flag genuine anomalies.

ROI and Cost: Is it worth the investment?

Implementing Outcome Driven Maintenance requires investment in sensors, software, and training. How do you justify this to the VP of Manufacturing?

The Cost of the Status Quo

Calculate the cost of your "Bad Actors."

• What is the annual cost of unscheduled downtime? (Industry average is often $15,000 - $50,000 per hour depending on the machine).
• What is the cost of quality downgrades (re-pulping finished rolls)?
• What is the energy waste?

The "One Save" Justification

In the paper industry, the ROI often comes from a single "save."

• Example: Detecting a gearbox failure on the couch roll before it seizes.
  • Run to Failure Cost: Gearbox destroys shaft, damages wire, requires 18 hours of downtime. Total: $400,000.
  • ODM Cost: Detect vibration/thermal anomaly 3 weeks out. Plan change during scheduled felt change. Downtime: 0 additional hours. Repair cost: $15,000 (refurbish gearbox).
  • Savings: $385,000.
  • This single event pays for the software subscription and sensor package for the year.

Phased Implementation

You don't have to do the whole mill at once.

1. Phase 1: Critical Assets (Press Section, Calender Stack).
2. Phase 2: Balance of Plant (Stock Prep, Vacuum Pumps).
3. Phase 3: Auxiliary Systems (Conveyors, Water Treatment).

Start where the pain is highest. For many mills, this is the Press Section, where the mechanical forces are highest and the impact on paper quality is most direct.

How to Get Started: A 90-Day Plan

If you are ready to shift from reactive or static maintenance to Outcome Driven Maintenance, here is a roadmap.

Days 1-30: Audit and Align

• Asset Criticality Assessment: Re-evaluate your asset list. Which assets actually impact the outcomes (Cost, Quality, Safety)?
• Data Gap Analysis: Do you have the sensors needed? If you want to optimize energy, do you have sub-metering on the drives?
• Define Outcomes: Meet with Operations and Finance. What is the #1 pain point? Is it energy? Is it breaks at the winder?

Days 31-60: Connectivity and Pilot

• Deploy Sensors: Install wireless vibration and temperature sensors on the pilot section.
• Software Setup: Implement a robust asset management platform that can ingest the data.
• Baseline: Let the system run to establish "normal" operating parameters for different grades of paper.

Days 61-90: Action and Refinement

• Workflow Integration: Connect the insights to your work order software. Ensure that an alert actually reaches a mechanic's tablet.
• First Catch: Look for the first anomaly. Validate it. Fix it.
• Review: Measure the result. Did we prevent downtime? Did we save energy?

Conclusion

The paper industry is not getting any simpler. Margins will remain tight, and the workforce will continue to shrink as experienced operators retire. Outcome Driven Maintenance is the only viable path forward to do more with less.

It shifts the conversation from "fixing broken machines" to "optimizing a manufacturing business." By focusing on the outcomes—cost, quality, and yield—maintenance teams stop being a cost center and start being a competitive advantage.

Don't just maintain the mill. Drive the results.

Learn more about how to prevent failures before they impact your margins.